Coronavirus third wave : Is it inevitable in India in 2021 ?

By now, the pandemic has hit almost every sector in India. As the research suggests, India may witness the third wave of the pandemic by the end of August. The best-case scenario will be less than 1,00,000 cases, while the worst-case scenario will be nearly 1,50,000 cases. According to research conducted at the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad and Kanpur, the pandemic may reach its height in October. However, the real kicker is that, according to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), the third wave will hit the country by the end of August, though it will be less severe than the second. Several online doctor consultation services aim to provide free access to topmost doctors through online consultation.

The report predicts that the vaccinated people can also pass on the Delta variant of COVID-19. According to a University of Michigan modeling estimate, India is on track for a "little uptick" by the end of August, but the next peak is expected in November. The John D. Kalbfleisch Collegiate Professor of Biostatistics, Michigan University, Bhramar Mukherjee, said that the infection rose with a slight bump towards the end of August. However, there is a high chance that the third wave would appear around November. Additionally, Dr. Samiran Panda, the ICMR's Head of Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases, emphasized that preventing super spreader occurrences is directly linked to minimizing the severity of the surge.

According to the Indian Medical Association (IMA), the third wave is a foregone conclusion in some regions of the country due to government and population indifference to the COVID-19 protocols.

What Is A Wave?

The third wave of the pandemic refers to the curve of any outbreak. It depicts a rise and fall in the number of cases over a set of time. Only when the virus has been confined, and COVID patients have decreased exponentially does the wave come to an end.

• How Does A Wave Occur?

The most well-known cause of many waves is a mutation in the virus's genetic code. Due to the long vaccination process, the virus adapts and mutates well. The virus's appearance varies regularly, and once it adapts, it can avoid antibodies as well. It results in a new strain, and, as a result, the next wave arises.

• Is The Third Wave Dangerous?

Following the second wave of coronavirus in India, which claimed thousands of lives, specialists ask people to take the necessary steps to ensure that the third wave is not as lethal as the previous one. According to various scientific and media reports, the third wave of COVID-19 could hit India between October and November. However, the severity of the third wave can be avoided by following the COVID protocols and guidelines.

Austria's Institute of Science and Expertise published a report in the Journal Scientific Reports. The report states that Lifting COVID measures such as mask-wearing and social distancing when the majority of the population has already been vaccinated can increase the likelihood of the emergence of a resistant strain. There have been several attempts to understand why the Delta variant is extra transmissible. Delta variant is a sign that the virus is evolving extensively. So, it is essential to realize that the pandemic is taking a dangerous shape.

• How Should India Deal With The Third Wave?

According to government scientists, preventing the third wave of COVID-19 is possible only if everyone follows the fundamental preventative measures of wearing a mask, hand washing/sanitizing, and a 6-foot physical distance.

Moreover, a 60 percent completely vaccinated percentage is one of the essential metrics highlighted. By gaining herd immunity, it is anticipated that we can lessen the risk of an intense third wave if we can overcome this threshold. It can, at best, avert the occurrence of a third wave. Also, the oxygen concentrator dealers in India must be ready to deal with the third wave, only if it arises.

However, with daily vaccinations flagging and the effective reproduction rate (R) value topping 1 for the first time since February, various modeling forecasts, including those by government specialists, now imply India could be on the verge of a third Covid-19 peak soon.

Stay Safe!!